Commentary: Forget the Masses
Many people who are looking at tiny, jerky, Internet video on their computers at home believe that we are just waiting for some amazing technical leap -- a new piece of software or hardware -- for high-quality video on the Web to become a reality. That's just not the case. The problem is bandwidth. But the solution to this problem is purely logistical: digging holes, putting fiber in them, or shooting satellites into the sky.
The leap we are waiting for is philosophical, not technical. Streaming media sucks, even in a broadband environment, because nobody, or next to nobody, is making use of the medium for everything it's worth. Content creators simply have yet to figure out what to do with streaming media.
"The Internet will soon be able to do what television can do, technically," goes the spiel. "Television-style programming on the Internet is not only natural, it's inevitable."
While the above statements are true, "television on the Internet" is no more a realistic description of what the broadband medium really is -- or what it will become -- than were early descriptions of television as "radio with pictures."
Television's content models have been driven by business decisions unique to the medium. It took television a long while to stop imitating radio. And therein lies the rub: Streaming media content businesses will look nothing like successful television or radio programming businesses.
"In the streaming media world, unless you're careful, success - at least in terms of eyeballs -- can literally put you out of business."
Everybody knows that it's cheaper to start a streaming media business than it is to start a television network, or even a television station.
But that's not the whole story. It costs a television network exactly the same amount to present a show to a few viewers as it does to present a show to a massive audience. Streaming media distribution, on the other hand, is usually sold to content providers on a per-connection basis. Each second that any individual watches a program adds a few cents to the content provider's costs. It is significantly more expensive to serve two viewers than it is to serve one viewer. It costs much more to serve a million viewers. In the streaming media world, unless you're careful, success - at least in terms of eyeballs -- can literally put you out of business.
I am not particularly fond of the music of Rod Stewart. But if I'm in the mood to watch television, and there is nothing else on but a Rod Stewart concert on HBO, I may actually watch it. I don't really care about it -- it's just on.
But in a world of 10,000 channels, I will never end up watching that Rod Stewart concert, because there is always something else on. In fact, if I go to StreamSearch, Yack.com, the Windows Media Guide or the RealGuide, I am likely to find a concert that I really do want to watch, by a band I really do care about - say, Dr. Ring Ding and the Senior All-Stars -- whose concert would never be on HBO. The more obscure the band (and the more difficult it is to find the content elsewhere), the higher the quality of my attention will be.
"Put mass communication out of your head. Think individually."
Online, you can't count on anybody finding your content by accident, as you can in the television world. You can't even count on anybody finding your content on purpose. Any audience you do find - or that finds you -- will likely be small, but fiercely dedicated. This smallness actually works in your favor economically, because large audiences mean large hosting bills.
The answer (though perhaps not the implementation of this answer) is simple: Target small, dedicated audiences and monetize your relationships with them, one audience member at a time. Put mass communication out of your head. Think individually. As a fan of Dr. Ring Ding and the Senior All-Stars, I'm far more likely to buy a CD or a T-shirt than I would be likely to buy anything related to Rod Stewart - even if the Rod Stewart concert had my eyeballs. Ten thousand fans buying T-shirts can amount to enough of a profit to justify sending streams to 10,000 fans. That's your goal.
As a streaming content producer or distributor, you exist on the same business plane as the owner of a local nightclub, or the programming manager for a small television station - not on the same business plane as Ted Turner. If that isn't glamorous enough for you, I'm sorry: Go get a job at NBC, wait 10 years, and come back to streaming media when the market has matured.
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