Video Rx: 2015 Online Video Industry Prediction
Google and Apple will continue to stifle the pace of video updates to mobile browser technology in an effort to steer development to native applications. Yet, while most video producers want their video “secure”, many cannot afford the cost of native application development. And so, budgets for video distribution will remain crunched, and cost effective options to deploy to mobile devices and browsers will remain elusive.
MPEG DASH will make bigger gains in 2015 as the installed base of compatible desktop browsers increases, but support across mobile browsers (where it is needed most) will remain slow. HEVC efficiency and quality will continue to improve, but playback support will be limited to newer mobile devices. (Relatedly, Adobe Flash Player could remain somewhat relevant in an HTML5 world if HEVC decoding is added to its capabilities, as we will not see 100% adoption of HEVC across browsers.)
Hopefully we will see an aggressively-priced hardware encoder that supports HEVC to achieve better quality over lower bitrates for live events; more likely, however, HEVC hardware encoding will be priced for large-scale enterprises.
As we see increases in mobile viewership, mobile fragmentation and the proliferation of new devices like Google Chromecast and Amazon Fire TV, the need to migrate legacy web video applications to HTML5 or native applications will grow. And browser-based live streaming and video chat applications will remain challenging, given the limits of current HTML5 technology.
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