H.264 Video Prepares MPEG-4 For Prime Time
Additionally, many broadcasters are adamant that the units used in their facilities be more appliance-like than PC-like. This lends an additional level of technical design to most implementations, as vendors tend to design codecs first for a PC platform and then port to a DSP-based appliance platform. Several vendors will probably announce H.264 appliances in the next two months, but technical stability may take an additional four to six months.
The third area to consider when measuring the impact of H.264 on MPEG-4 system adoption is the budget/adoption cycle. Similar to the technology stability curve, few vendors factor the "wait and see" attitude that broadcasters take about new technologies and fewer still factor the typical broadcaster’s budget cycle of two and a half to three years between technologies. At NAB 2003, we talked to some North American broadcasters who were looking but said they would begin to "kick the tires" on technologies they’d watched over the past two years, including MPEG-4. Their reasons for not moving forward with new technologies had as much to do with budgetary and amortization issues on technology they’d bought in the previous two years as it had to do with robustness of new solutions.
Finally, as with everything in this business, perceived value will also come into play in the first half of 2004, especially in the prosumer market. Prosumers have not adopted MPEG-4 as rapidly as once hoped, primarily due to the combination of low-quality and high price tags of early products. Downward pricing pressure will be exerted in the near future by new vendors targeting the prosumer space. This should accelerate the adoption of MPEG-4 in general and H.264 specifically, but will also have an impact on profit margins for vendors focusing on the broadcast market.
In conclusion, while the adoption of MPEG-4 is easier in markets that have not made the transition to digital acquisition or transmission or have had older digital technologies in place for an extended period of time, the good news and the bad news is that H.264 is now on the minds of many broadcasters in North America. If technical demonstrations at upcoming trade shows prove further advancements in encoding quality are possible without compromising technical stability, and if vendors can relate the overall benefits of H.264 versus competing encoding technologies, there will be an uptick in MPEG-4 interest among broadcasters in the near future.