Player Penetration By The Numbers

Get Real
That same report claimed that Real had lost ground and was firmly entrenched in third, but yet again the veracity of statistics-based metrics have to be called into question as a representative of Real firmly stated that Frost & Sullivan didn’t contact Real when compiling their report. "People purposefully confuse the definition [of penetration stats]," says Kevin Foreman, GM Helix for RealNetworks. He went on to claim more than 400 million unique email addresses of users who have downloaded the RealPlayer. In terms of actual number of downloads, "we are well into the billions," says Foreman. "But to a broadcaster, that number doesn’t make sense," especially considering the fact that there are only an estimated 580 million people currently online.

That number will be increasing exponentially in the near future, though, as more and more cell phones are manufactured with video capabilities. Real’s poised to take advantage of this market by being included as the default media player on many of the major cell OSes. But potentially more significant to the increase in user base is Real’s movement into the European market.

Real recently announced that their open-source Helix player will ship with Linux-based OSes in Europe. The Helix player only allows for the playback of Ogg Vorbis and Theora-encoded video (two open-source video codecs), but users will be prompted with the opportunity for a free upgrade to RealPlayer 10 when they first use the Helix player. "There’s no QuickTime or Windows Media player for Linux," says Foreman. "If you’re a Linux or a Solaris customer, your only real choice is Real." While the Linux marketplace still accounts for only 2.7% of the total desktop pie, "a lot of analysts forecast that there will be more Linux desktops than Mac this year," says Foreman. Plus, Linux-based OSes have gained a lot of momentum in cost-conscious European markets.

A Window into Media
Speaking of media players in Europe, Microsoft’s monopolistic ways caught up with them earlier this year as the European Commission won an antitrust case against them. As a result of this litigation, Microsoft was ordered to stop packaging its Windows Media Player (WMP) with the Windows XP OS and pay a record $604 million fine. In light of Real’s attempt to increase its presence in the European market, "a lot of analysts would say that it is a big win for us," says Real’s Foreman. "But our strategy is to not count on a verdict either way." Microsoft has avoided having to succumb to this decision for the near future, as the Commission granted a stay on the penalties as Microsoft appeals the decision. A ruling on that appeal should come before the end of the year.

In the meantime, WMP’s current integration with Windows OSes guarantees its presence on the vast majority of PCs. A Mac version of the WMP 9 is available, but the future of WMP on the Mac is somewhat up in the air. With the beta release of WMP 10 , Microsoft has made clear that it wants to establish itself as a major player in the future distribution of digital content. Through their concept of a "digital media mall," Microsoft has positioned WMP 10 to become the glue that will facilitate the transfer of digital content from sale to delivery to consumption. What makes this significant to the future of WMP on Macs is that most of the major online digital content purveyors only work with Windows-based systems. Whether or not Microsoft will deem creating a Mac version of WMP 10 worthwhile has yet to be seen; their primary focus is on increasing the number of CE devices that use WMP as their default media player (especially Microsoft’s own MediaCenters).