If You Webcast It, How Many Will Come?

It’s the goal of any CDN to fill its capacity, and therefore fully monetize its network, on a consistent basis. This can be a significant challenge when it comes to Webcasting, though, especially as a trend has taken hold where webcasters aren’t willing to stand by their audience estimates. "The game that’s going on is that none of the buyers will commit to their estimates. They claim their events are going to serve four hundred thousand streams so they need that much capacity available, but they’re only willing to commit to forty thousand," says Richard Buck, VP of engineering at Mirror Image. Failure to deliver estimated traffic can result in heavy losses. "It’s a dangerous system because there’s no pressure on their side to make it right," Buck says.

Buck recommends a cautious approach. "There comes a point at which you can’t afford to maintain huge amounts of unused capacity," he says. This reality has forced Mirror Image to implement a qualifying process to weed out those customers that could result in an overall loss rather than a gain from the CDN’s point of view. "Our qualifying process is there to try and find out which customers you should take on. A whole lot of these people, especially those doing one-off events, are complete fly-by-nighters. When you talk to someone who’s doing a one-time live event, you have to look hard to ensure they know what they’re talking about. If people who come to us that have the right answers, we can feel comfortable working with them. The people who don’t have the answers are the ones you just have to put the brakes on."

Considerations for Accurate Estimating
While the effects of not properly estimating the size of a webcast’s audience can directly result in a less successful Webcast experience, actually coming up with accurate estimates can be a real challenge. "Most content companies or folks who are putting on these events leave that as the open variable in their formula," says Byrne.

But there are some general trends across all webcasts that offer lessons in restraint, despite whatever confidence one might have in the potential success of a webcast event. "These events are never as big as you think they’re going to be," says Akamai’s Wheaton. "Very rarely have I seen events that actually exceed expectations."

The same holds true in the corporate world. "They always overestimate participation," says McLane of her employer, JPMorganChase. "The issue is more about bringing the numbers up than worrying about them going over."

Not surprisingly, Webcast events that occur more than once offer easier opportunities for accurately estimating the potential size of a webcast’s audience. And there are many factors that can influence the size of any webcast. "When we plan with people we want to know what their marketing’s going to be. Is it a preregistration event? What gates are you going to put in front of people to watch this event?" Wheaton says. "As soon as you put in those things, that changes the dynamic of how many people will come to sign up."

All of these variables translate into a clear need to have someone at the helm with the experience necessary to factor everything in to a cohesive estimate. "Make sure that there’s somebody who’s shepherding the whole process, like an event manager," says Buck. Having someone in charge who’s gone through this before, either with the same event or a similar one, can do wonders for encouraging a successful webcast experience.

Look to Your CDN for Help
Contrary to what some might believe, it’s not in the best interest of CDNs to try and push their customers into higher commits that might exceed the size of an audience a webcast actually draws. "Because we’re in the game for the long haul, we want to do the right things for our customers," says Wheaton. "And the biggest areas where we see customer dissatisfaction is where people overestimate and overcommit and don’t use the full amount."

Especially for larger events, well-established CDNs offer the wisdom that can only be gained from experience handling similar events in the past. "A lot of best practices have been built up over time on these things," says Wheaton, "so we can help give people a lot of guidance when setting up their events."

CDNs are also often a good reference point for learning more about webcasting in general and, not surprisingly, gaining a better understanding of how much streaming delivery will cost for a particular event. "We’ve built a lot of tools that help us to represent the cost to customers with the least amount of error so their expectations are set correctly," says VitalStream’s Byrne. "We want them to understand the process."

Many CDNs also have mechanisms in place, such as alerts on bandwidth charges that can help to limit a Webcaster’s exposure to unexpected spikes in traffic. Some CDNs even have ways to set bandwidth thresholds that, once passed, automatically trigger a change in the way their Webcasts are delivered. "If someone has a fixed budget," Wheaton says, "we can set it up so that once traffic hits a certain level we can take the 300Kbps stream off of the site and offer only a lower-quality one." [For a brief look into other ways you can lower your delivery costs for a live webcast, see the sidebar "Pinching Pennies" on page 3 of this article.]